Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Hot Waitresses


Economists love their indicators. We believe by looking at some chosen statistic, broader implications can be drawn about the economy. Some of these indicators make a lot of sense and tell us important things about the health of the economy. For example the Case-Shiller Index measures housing prices while the Purchasing Managers Index gauges confidence in the manufacturing sector. However, in the rush for individual economists to standout several loopy indicators have been developed, my favorite of which is the Hot Waitress Index.

The Hot Waitress Economic Index “indicates the state of the economy by measuring the number of attractive people working as waiters/waitresses.” The idea being that as the number of sexy people working service industry jobs increases, the more dire the economy and vice versa. It assumes that in good economic times attractive people (particularly females) can find work as models or actresses. As finances contract, those jobs dry up and hopeful models and actresses are forced to find work in other areas, the most common being in the service industry (the low entry and exit costs of the service industry make it a natural choice). This indicator even works in places that lack a strong media industry because the attractive people will stay in their hometowns instead of migrating because they believe that they will not be able to get the jobs they want.

So if your waitress at the local bistro could be described as a “butter face,” remember it’s good for the economy. 

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Economic Impact of Gay Marriage


With the President’s recent endorsement of Same-Sex marriage and the subsequent vitriolic condemnation for the right, I figured now would be a good time rise above the demagoguery and take a different look at what gay marriage would mean. Specifically, I want to see what the economic impact gay marriage would be, if any. To do this I had to collect a couple of statistics: percentage of the population that is homosexual (H), current US population (U), percentage of the population that marries per year (M), and the average cost of a wedding (W).

H: Percentage of the population that is homosexual
This is actually a pretty difficult figure to determine. Different surveys and polls fluctuate between 2% to 25%. Alfred Kinsey pegged the figure at 10% in his book 1948 Sexual Behavior in the Human Male. In 2008, Indiana University’s Center for Sexual Health Promotion conducted the National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior, determining that 7% of women and 8% of men identify as either homosexual or bi-sexual. For simplicity I’ll just average this figure to 7.5%.

U: current US population
Based on the 2010 US Census the current US population is 313.5 million people.

M: Percentage of the population that gets married per year
According to the US Census 2.2 million marriages occurred in 2009. If we divide 2.2 million by the US population (313.5 million) we can determine the percentage of the population that gets married per year. 2.2/313.5= .007, meaning that every year .7% of the US population gets married. Since there really isn’t any reason to assume that homosexual couples would marry at significantly different rates than their straight counter parts, we can extrapolate this .7% to same-sex couples  (the real rate would be higher if anything since many long term couples have been denied the right, for decades in some cases, resulting in a surge of weddings upon legalization).

W: Average cost a wedding
Reuters  did all the heavy lifting for me regarding data collection. Unsurprisingly New York averages the most expensive weddings at over $65 thousand and West Virginia was the lowest at $14 thousand. The national average is $27,017. This number only covers the ceremony itself; the honeymoon and guest expenses are not included. As with our M statistic, there is no reason to assume that same-sex couples would spend any less on their weddings.

With our statistic in hand, we can now develop a formula:

H*U*M*W=Economic Impact of Gay Marriage per year
7.5%*313.5 million*.7%*27,017= $4,446,660,488

In case you’re having difficulty reading that number above, it says 4.4 BILLION dollars. That’s billion with a big ass B. Remember, this is just covering the impact of same-sex weddings. I haven’t even delved into what impact same-sex divorce would have. Weddings remain a local affair so this is money that goes directly to small businesses across America: bakers, dressmakers, florists, caterers, wedding planners, etc. While none of my calculations were extremely rigorous, they do provide a rough estimate of what would happen, and I’d call 4.4 billion dollars one hell of a stimulus package. 

Saturday, May 12, 2012

The “Official” Strip Rules for Settlers of Catan


Settlers of Catan is one of my favorite board games to play. It combines the commercial and strategic elements of Monopoly and Risk without importing those games’ ability to ruin friendships. As much as I love the Settlers, I do realize that it lacks an element of sexiness, so I decided to do something about that.

Presented here are the modified rules for the board game Settlers of Catan. These rules have been created based on the premise that naked anything makes it better. These rules are official only in the sense that they have no connection to the manufacturer and I chose to use the word “official.” Enjoy people.

1. The rules presented here are only in addition to the rules presented in the game rule book.

2. All players shall begin the game fully clothed. The exact number of articles of clothing is not regulated, but must be within the realms of common sense (i.e. players are not to put on their entire wardrobe before playing).

3. All clothing is weighed the same. A sock or shoe is equal in value to a shirt or pants. Jewelry (watches, earrings, necklaces, etc) does not count as clothing.

4. On a roll of a 7, any player with more than seven cards must also forfeit one article of clothing.

5. The roller of 7 must move the robber to another space on the board and rob another player. The roller can then choose between stealing a random resource card or taking an article of clothing. The player being robbed is allowed to choose which article of clothing is given up.

6. A soldier card can also be used to steal clothing. The card holder forfeits the right to steal a random resource card and the player being robbed is allowed to choose which article of clothing is given up.

7. Clothing can be traded to the bank for resource cards. The trade ratio is 2 articles of clothing per 1 resource card. If the player has a utility port they can trade at 1:1.

8. Players can trade clothing for resource cards with one another, at whatever ratio they feel like.

9. The first player to get another player completely naked receives 2 victory points. If a player loses their last article of clothing on a roll of a 7 from having extra cards or trades their last piece of clothing away, they do not get the points for making themselves naked.

10. Once an article of clothing has been removed it cannot be put back on. Nor can a player put on clothing once worn by another player. This is a strip game after all.

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Kick Starting


Tim Schafer  is a game designer that gained a lot of notoriety throughout the 90’s creating computer adventure games (The Secret of Monkey Island, Full Throttle, Grim Fandango). Overtime, however, the popularity of this genre waned and essentially died by 2000. 12 years later Schafer decided that it was time to return to his creative roots and make a new adventure game. Lacking the necessary funding to carry out his goal himself, Schafer contacted every big time game publisher he could. The results were less than successful; every company emphatically rejected his offer, stating that there was not profitability in his idea. A few years ago this would have been the end, a brilliant idea snuffed out before its time, but now there is an alternative.

Using the fund raising website Kickstarter, Schafer was able to market his game idea directly to consumers, asking them to pay for a game that Schafer and his team would then make. The original production goal was 400,000 dollars, that goal was reached in 8 hours. As of May 07, the project has raised 3.3 million dollars. The game hasn’t been made and it’s already profitable! 

The basic way the Kickstarter works is that someone presents an outline of the idea they’re wishing to fund. The idea can be practically anything, from a quirky invention to a post-apocalyptic web-series. To incentivize investment each projects offer special perks and access at different investment levels. Sometime this includes special art or meeting the creators but almost always includes the product being developed. The real beauty of Kickstarter is that is circumvents the traditional development model. The usual product development model is idea is hatched, it’s moved on to management, fiddled with by marketing, put into production, and then finally (and hopefully) bought by consumers. In this model, the consumer is the last (and sometimes least important) element in the chain. Frankly I think this is a stupid and outdated model in some markets.

I love Kickstarter. It’s a new digital voice of the market, if people like an idea they can choose to support it. There isn’t some executive enforcing their own arbitrary views with a militant marketing team, shoving it down consumer’s throats. It’s democracy by wallet. While I don’t think Kickstarter will replace the traditional model, it will compete with it; which in a vibrate economy is always a good thing. 

The Name


I choose the title Intergalactic Economist for several reasons. I think of myself as an economist, as it is where half my formal training lies. I think the word “Economist” is dynamic, commanding, and if you don’t mind me saying a little sexy. My objective nature and dismissal of morality lend as well to calling myself an economist. 

The “intergalactic” portion stems from my generally unique ideas I express. I don’t ever want to be bound to any single idea, but explore the entire cosmos of possibilities. Also, as a child I wanted to grow up to be a space pirate. Unfortunately, NASA does not see “star raping and space pillaging” as legitimate goals for becoming an astronaut. To fill this tragic oversight on the part of the US government, I am currently working closely with the Somali Space Agency. Initial results are less than satisfying, but the engineers assure me that they’ll be ready to launch a raid against the International Space Station by 2015.

Introductions


Greetings newly faithful followers,


I warmly welcome you to my strange little slice of the Internet. This is where I post my musing and ideas about the world for all to see. Some of these writing will be informative; some will be funny. My hope, however, is that I will always be entertaining. 

While this will primarily be an economics blog, it will not be one in the traditional sense. I will not bore my dear readers with endless charts and statistics. Instead I will explore anything and everything that interests me, be it economics, pop culture, politics, or whatever tickles my fancy.

So thanks for stopping by and I hope to see you again.

Dr. Ethan O